966
FNUS21 KWNS 150644
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS
MAINLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES, WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENCOURAGE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE, DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THIS DRY AIRMASS, ENCOURAGING HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS, SUPPORTING LIGHTNING-INDUCED
IGNITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LASTLY, DRY WESTERLY
GRADIENT-INDUCED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, DRIVEN BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MANITOBA.
OVERALL, AN ACTIVE DAY WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE WEST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE, A DEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MANIFEST BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALSO
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD 15+ MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, OVERLAPPING 10-15
PERCENT RH FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA
BORDER, WARRANTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS.
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ALSO IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS 25+ MPH
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERLAPPING RH BELOW 15
PERCENT ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 500 MB,
YIELDING CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BENEATH THIN CAPE (UP TO 500
J/KG IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS). AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER
INITIALLY BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE RAPID
EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS AS
STORMS PROGRESS FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TOWARD THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS. HERE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WHILE
OVERALL SCANT FOR TYPICAL DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION) WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN, SUPPORTING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSIFICATION. AS THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE ERRATIC TO
PERHAPS SEVERE (58+ MPH) WIND GUSTS, THEY WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD DRIER
FUELS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED GREATER THAN AVERAGE FUEL LOADING. THIS
VOLATILE SCENARIO MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL LIGHTNING INDUCED IGNITIONS,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RAPID SPREAD FROM BOTH THE LARGER SCALE
GRADIENT WINDS/GUSTS, AS WELL AS FROM ERRATIC GUSTS BY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SCANT PRECIPITATION,
WARRANTING THE INTRODUCTION OF SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS.
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND GRADIENT FLOW WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RH
WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN SOME SPOTS, WARRANTING BROAD ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST OVERLAP OF 15-20 PERCENT RH AND 20-25 MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS
WHERE FUELS ARE MOST RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..WYOMING AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS
DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS REACHING THE 15-20 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE RH SHOULD DIP TO 15 PERCENT OVER MOST LOCALES.
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
FUELS. AT LEAST SOME WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL EXISTS WHEREVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SURFACE CONDITIONS CAN OVERLAP
RECEPTIVE FUEL BEDS.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page