945
ACUS48 KWNS 150903
SWOD48
SPC AC 150901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON
..DISCUSSION
..MONDAY/DAY 4
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON MONDAY, THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD TO A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE
VOLATILE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE RISK OF
ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND
TORNADOES. AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THE
EVENING, LARGE CLOCKWISE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY LEAD TO AN
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD IN TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
(SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG).
..TUESDAY/DAY 5 TO THURSDAY/DAY 7
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE D5/TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TRENDS ARE FOR THE
FRONT TO SHIFT EASTWARD FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED, AND AS SUCH
PROBABILITIES WERE SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH THIS UPDATE. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.
..THORNTON.. 05/15/2026
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