206
ACUS11 KWNS 151921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151920
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151920Z - 152145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEEPENING CUMULUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A HOT, DRY AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S AND
30S. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS AIRMASS WILL POSE
A RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TX, CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT EMERGES
INTO SOMEWHAT INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 05/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34630364 34920295 35130093 34930027 34629986 34289965
33899953 33449952 32839971 32380004 32090068 32060148
32130257 32580317 33090361 33680401 34000399 34630364
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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