871
ACUS11 KWNS 160005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160005
OKZ000-TXZ000-160100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160005Z - 160100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH AN APPROACHING LINE OF
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE STABILIZATION LIMITS
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST WITH ZERO VISIBILITY, HAVE RECENTLY
ORGANIZED INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE TX ROLLING PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OK. PRECEDING THIS LINE OF STORMS, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH 30+ F T/TD SPREADS CONTRIBUTING TO WELL OVER
1500 J/KG DCAPE. GIVEN AN INTENSIFYING LLJ ATOP THE WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND AMPLE REMAINING EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL,
AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE GUSTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS, A
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 05/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32620005 33649977 34399963 34739916 34779858 34649822
34349801 33699812 33069849 32659880 32459907 32419955
32620005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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