440
ACUS48 KWNS 160859
SWOD48
SPC AC 160858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/TUESDAY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE D4/TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PROBABILITIES WERE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE IN ALIGNMENT WITH CONTINUED TRENDS FOR
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.
.. D5/WEDNESDAY - D8/SATURDAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM THE
BETTER INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
D6/THURSDAY THROUGH D8/SATURDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL,
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
..THORNTON.. 05/16/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page