026
FNUS21 KWNS 161612
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VALID 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS TO
ACCOMMODATE TRENDS IN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. THIS INCLUDES
THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST/SOUTH OVER
NORTHWEST TX. THE ELEVATED AREA OVER SOUTH/WEST COLORADO WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEING
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS SOME OF THE NEARBY LOWER VALLEYS.
OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTHWEST WINDS (CURRENTLY SUSTAINED NEAR
10-15 MPH) ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WHERE RHS HOVER NEAR 10-25% UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE DRAWN
AREAS.
..STEARNS.. 05/16/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0116 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. GRADIENT FLOW
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS DEPICTS WIDESPREAD 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OVERLAPPING WITH 15-20 PERCENT RH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE LOWER GREAT BASIN INTO WESTERN TEXAS, WARRANTING ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN DRY FUELS. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS, WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD RECEPTIVE
FUEL BEDS EXPERIENCING FUEL LOADING. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS ARE ALSO IN PLACE TO ADDRESS INITIAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER DRY
FUEL BEDS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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