661
ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS
(INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF
THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD OK/KS INTO IA AND THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. BENEATH
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW, RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE KS SURFACE LOW
INTO WESTERN OK/WEST-CENTRAL TX. A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS KS INTO IA,
WHERE SIGNIFICANT ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
..CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FREE FROM CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION FROM ANY CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM LATE IN THE DAY
2/SUNDAY PERIOD. STRONG HEATING AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT, WHILE
ALSO INCREASING IN SPEED. SOUTHERLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALSO
INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH. ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (2-4
INCH DIAMETER), STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WITH TIME, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
..CENTRAL IA INTO PORTIONS OF IL/WI/IN/LOWER MI
UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT ON MONDAY. ONGOING
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF IA INTO WI
MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION, AIRMASS
RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE, DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/IN AND LOWER MI SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ANY MORNING CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS
EAST. WHILE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, A DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE.
..OK/TX
A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK/TX.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, STRONG
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH, BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, A RISK FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST.
..LEITMAN.. 05/16/2026
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