729
ACUS11 KWNS 161936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161936
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161936Z - 162100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE UNDERWAY,
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS
INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY BY ABOUT
21Z.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE PER 1-KM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 20Z. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
CONVECTION, PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW (NORTH OF THE LEE CYCLONE IN
SOUTHEAST CO) IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
FAVOR INITIAL/HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS, AND THE SUPERCELL THREAT IS MOST LIKELY TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION. AN EVENTUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE STORMS
ENCOUNTER INCREASING BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, AND AS
HODOGRAPHS LENGTHEN WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE (WHICH COULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO). THUS, A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BY ABOUT 21Z.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39250079 39070133 38930220 38920293 39100361 39430371
40330309 40870222 40980159 40960101 40510071 39830059
39250079
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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