446
ACUS11 KWNS 162020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162020
MOZ000-IAZ000-162145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162020Z - 162145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND ALONG A STALLED FRONT IN
IOWA. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21-22Z.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A GRADUAL
INCREASE/DEEPENING OF CUMULUS ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN MO, ALONG A STALLED FRONT IN IA, AND IN THE OPEN WARM
SECTOR INTO NORTHEAST KS. FARTHER EAST, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO. CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH-THROUGH-WEST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INHIBITION (RELATIVELY WEAK MLCIN MODIFYING THE
18Z TOP SOUNDING FOR 90/64 F), AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE, AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40079295 39759276 39339291 39239323 39509384 40069453
40339500 40439552 40729569 40989553 41229457 41169408
41039375 40449327 40079295
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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