205
ACUS11 KWNS 162142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162142
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-170015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162142Z - 170015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH AREAS OF DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IA
ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND INTO NORTHEAST KS, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE LENGTH OF IT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EASTERLY WITHIN THIS ZONE,
WITH 35-40 KT MIDLEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS AROUND 50
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION/BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENING HAS LED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT DESPITE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES, AND
THIS SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER TIME AS STORMS RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY FORM INTO NORTHEAST KS WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
HERE, VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CU DEVELOPING WITH THE MOIST
AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. THE MODIFIED 18Z TOP
SOUNDINGS SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTEND, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 05/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40699572 40229559 39699562 39259581 39139633 39139707
39239787 39499882 39589959 40009964 39990017 40330018
40479999 40709999 40700024 41760023 41699754 41549629
41049589 40699572
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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