331
ACUS11 KWNS 162347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162346
MOZ000-IAZ000-170115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...
VALID 162346Z - 170115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES (OVER NORTHERN MO) OVER
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF 2+ INCH HAIL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO. ALONG THE
MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, 68 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE, AND GIVEN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
MINIMAL MLCINH, SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PERSIST WITH A SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SEEMS WEAK OVERALL, WHICH MAY BE
WHY TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS NOT PROVEN ROBUST (WITH ONLY ONE BRIEF
TORNADO REPORTED IN IA). QUESTIONS ALSO REMAIN REGARDING HOW MUCH
MORE 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL WILL OCCUR GIVEN AN INCREASE IN FREQUENT
STORM INTERACTIONS.
NONETHELESS, GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND/OR DOMINANT WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK, AND 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHERN MO,
WHICH ARE DOMINANT, DISCRETE, AND ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41209519 41159391 41069341 40859296 40559257 40019233
39769265 39689309 39709353 40009414 40399473 40679508
40939530 41209519
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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