278
ACUS11 KWNS 170137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170136
NEZ000-KSZ000-170330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...
VALID 170136Z - 170330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CELLS INTERACT WITH
THE WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CELLS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY KS TO JUST SOUTH OF LINCOLN, NE, AND THESE ARE WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE IS OVER 3000 J/KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THESE CELLS AND
EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MO, WITH A MORE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THESE CELLS INTO NORTHERN KS.
AREA VWPS SHOW THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WITH AROUND 35 KT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT TOPEKA. GIVEN THE INCREASED SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH
NOW OVER 200 M2/S2, A BRIEF PERIOD IN TIME AND SPACE MAY EXIST FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO BEFORE THESE CELLS ARE UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW.
..JEWELL.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640
39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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