083
ACUS11 KWNS 170159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170158
MOZ000-170330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...
VALID 170158Z - 170330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR WITH AN MCS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REMAINS
POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO A
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING MCS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ IS FOSTERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/WAA WITH THIS MCS, AIDING IN ITS
PERSISTENCE THIS EVENING. GIVEN OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE RESIDING AHEAD
OF THE MCS, A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION LIMITS WIND POTENTIAL. A
FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL COULD ALSO BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORM CORES. A TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EITHER
WITH MERGING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, OR A RESULTANT EMBEDDED
MESOVORTEX.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
LAT...LON 40199493 40489439 40569375 40459285 40059244 39809240
39639271 39629339 39639389 39729427 39839457 40199493
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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