081
ACUS11 KWNS 170809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170808
NEZ000-170945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170808Z - 170945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO MAY OCCUR,
THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING'S
MCS. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A
WARM-AIR ADVECTION (WAA)/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME IN THE
850-700-MILLIBAR LAYER ASCENDING ATOP THE OUTFLOW-MODIFIED BOUNDARY
LAYER REMNANT FROM LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION.
THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MUCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG AND THE STRONGEST OF THE UPDRAFTS -- TYPICALLY EARLY IN THEIR
LIFECYCLE -- WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. WITH TIME, THE
CONTINUED WAA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONGEALING OF THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS
AND A LESSENING OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THUS, A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..MARSH/GLEASON.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41030113 41590083 41779949 41779807 41429762 41029757
40829823 40790001 40770093 41030113
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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