707
ACUS48 KWNS 170856
SWOD48
SPC AC 170854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION
.. D4/WEDNESDAY - D8/SUNDAY
ON D4/WEDNESDAY AND D5/THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM THE
BETTER INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS D4/WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.
D5/THURSDAY THROUGH D8/SUNDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL BECOMING A DIFFUSE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EACH DAY.
OVERALL, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..THORNTON.. 05/17/2026
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