514
ACUS11 KWNS 172031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172031
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-172200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SD...FAR NORTHWEST IA...AND
FAR SOUTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...
VALID 172031Z - 172200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH IS POSSIBLE
DOWNSTREAM OF AN ONGOING BOW MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED BOW IS ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED GUSTS
NEAR 80 MPH OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF DAMAGING WIND SWATHS AS CONVECTION
MOVES ALONG THE GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ORIENTED ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL VWP DATA SHOWS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND
40-50 KT WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
SD AND NORTHWEST IA. RADAR PRESENTATION RECENTLY SUGGESTS A
REAR-INFLOW JET MAY BE DEVELOPING, WHICH ALIGNS WITH STRENGTHENING
MIDLEVEL FLOW NOTED IN REGIONAL VWP. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED RISK
FOR STRONG TO INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 80 MPH OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST/NORTHEAST NEAR 45-50 KT.
..LEITMAN.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43769797 44039626 43799540 43409534 43089557 42799662
42719741 42669810 42899822 43399827 43769797
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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