040
ACUS11 KWNS 172039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172038
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172038Z - 172245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A DRYLINE THIS EVENING, WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING SPORADIC CU DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8.5+ C/KM) AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z OUN/DDC OBSERVED SOUNDINGS) ARE
SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY, WITH 2500-3500+ J/KG MLCAPE ANALYZED
VIA LATEST MESOANALYSIS.
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO STRONG CAPPING SAMPLED BY THE 18Z OUN
SOUNDING AND NEBULOUS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST (GENERALLY 25-35 KTS), A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET ALSO PROMOTING AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING WITH
ANY DEVELOPING/PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR SEGMENT,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE COULD BE
NEEDED SHOULD CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR LIKELY/IMMINENT GIVEN
THIS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35550050 36979991 38119945 38459914 38499853 38209813
37459785 36749802 36229829 35609888 34909979 34790007
34770041 34910059 35230062 35550050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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