543
ACUS11 KWNS 172246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172245
MNZ000-IAZ000-172345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172245Z - 172345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY, WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THE IMPENDING THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A BOWING QLCS IS TRAVERSING THE FAR WESTERN IA/MN
BORDER, WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND OCCURRING
WITH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THIS QLCS IS TRACKING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AXIS OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IS INCREASING (I.E. 200+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH PER 22Z MESOANALYSIS).
FURTHERMORE, 8+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE OVERSPREADING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
QLCS, YIELDING UP TO 3000 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE QLCS TO
STRENGTHEN, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL. LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITH
PORTIONS OF THE QLCS THAT INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A
TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 05/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42589521 44019511 44269487 44329424 44209347 43859281
43459256 42919281 42629326 42429418 42469470 42589521
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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