124
ACUS11 KWNS 180332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180332
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-180530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 216...218...
VALID 180332Z - 180530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 216, 218 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...A BOW-ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA,
WITH MUCH OF THE PUSH NOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKER WIND GUSTS COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS THE COOLER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THIS BOW EASTWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WI. THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH, BUT MAY RETREAT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO NORTHEAST IA
AND SOUTHWEST WI.
GIVEN THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, THE SURFACE COOL LAYER IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEVERE
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, THE SEVERE WIND RISK IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH THE EXISTING BOW, AND PERHAPS WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
THAT MAY FORM FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SQUALL LINE ENTERING INTO
CENTRAL IA. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH AND/OR EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN IA AND INTO SOUTHWEST WI IN THE COMING
HOURS.
..JEWELL.. 05/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41919421 42309364 42969324 43259330 43469340 43719375
43889314 43919217 43809118 43569063 43269036 42859044
42499094 42259153 41919421
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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