886
ACUS48 KWNS 180846
SWOD48
SPC AC 180844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/THURSDAY - D5/FRIDAY
ON D4/THURSDAY, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EAST TO THE CAROLINAS.
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DRYLINE ON
D5/FRIDAY MAY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL,
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN INCLUDING A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..D6/SATURDAY-D8/MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
WEST. WHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW.
..THORNTON.. 05/18/2026
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