438
FNUS21 KWNS 181653
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
..MORNING UPDATE
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREAS. DESPITE GOOD
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A
VOLATILE FIRE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH (GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH) AND CRITICALLY LOW RH OVERLAP A REGION OF
PROFOUNDLY DRY FUELS AND ACTIVE FIRES. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE WITH
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS TRAILING BEHIND, AND A DRYLINE SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL LIFT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE PORTRAYING IT
LIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST KS/OK STATE LINE AND STALLING FOR A FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS ACTIVE FIRES AND ANY NEW IGNITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, A DRASTIC WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT AND ANY
CONTROL EFFORTS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
AFTER 00Z, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH) IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/18/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0124 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS***
..SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OVER THE PLAINS, RESULTING
IN SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH WILL
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY AFTERNOON, WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING UP TO 500 MB IN THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN
STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING, AS WELL AS SURFACE GRADIENT FLOW WITH THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE, WIDESPREAD 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OVERLAPPING WITH 5-15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND POINTS IN BETWEEN, NECESSITATING THE
MAINTENANCE OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AMID
SINGLE-DIGIT RH, AND WHERE THE ERCS OF FUEL-LOADED GRASSES EXCEED
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THIS VOLATILE
OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND FUELS WILL OCCUR
OVER EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS/RH, CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS, AND EXACERBATION OF POTENTIAL HOLDOVER FIRES WILL ALL SUPPORT
WILDFIRE SPREAD AT A LIFE-THREATENINGLY FAST PACE. THE DANGER TO THE
FIRE SPREAD MAY BE COMPOUNDED LATER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN A DRAMATIC SHIFT OF THE SURFACE WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY, PIVOTING ANY ONGOING FIRE FRONTS ACCORDINGLY.
..SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA
A MID-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMUM WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER IS POISED TO MIX UP TO THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SUCH CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MIXING, IN TANDEM WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WILDFIRE-SPREAD CONDITIONS IN THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE COINCIDING WITH 15-20 PERCENT RH WILL OVERLAP
WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS, WARRANTING FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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