268
ACUS11 KWNS 181932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181931
KSZ000-OKZ000-182130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181931Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF TORNADO/VERY-LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON A DISCRETE STORM MODE. A WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS ARE INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF
DODGE CITY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND OBSERVED
7.9 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING, INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE DISCRETE MODES CAN
BE MAINTAINED LONGER GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LINEAR
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION,
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON.
..WENDT/HART.. 05/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36499920 36489977 36590009 36800021 37240015 37729977
37999955 38189903 38149863 37889833 37319824 36819839
36499920
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN
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