163
ACUS11 KWNS 190409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190408
TXZ000-190615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS/LAREDO VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190408Z - 190615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS OR HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM
OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXIST OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS EVENING, WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. A LARGE
CELL ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE BORDER PERSISTS, MOVING SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. THE CORE ON THAT STORM HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED. HOWEVER, NEW DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON THE OUTFLOW/EASTERN
FLANK OF THIS CELL, NOW INTO WEBB COUNTY.
GIVEN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION/OUTFLOW, THIS COMPLEX MAY PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE FURTHER LONGEVITY TONIGHT AS INHIBITION
INCREASES. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND/OR
ACCELERATE WITHOUT WEAKENING, IT COULD PORTEND A SEVERE WIND THREAT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY TONIGHT.
..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 05/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28080013 28249996 28199942 27969923 27339934 27430011
27620027 27840021 27990015 28080013
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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