016
ACUS11 KWNS 192131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192131
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-192230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192131Z - 192230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE DAMAGING GUSTS OR AN INSTANCE OF HAIL MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE, AND A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...PULSE CELLULAR STORMS AMID A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS (PER
MRMS MOSAIC RADAR AND NLDN LIGHTNING DATA). THESE STORMS ARE
INTENSIFYING AMID A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 8 C/KM PER 21Z MESOANALYSIS. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER POOR, RESULTING IN TALL/THIN BUOYANCY PROFILES,
YIELDING UP TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PULSE-CELLULAR, WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS FROM WET DOWNBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH AN
INSTANCE OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SEVERE THREAT, A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 05/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35259080 36888907 38158711 38738578 38668490 38378463
37658495 36768614 35778828 35308903 34998984 35259080
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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