800
ACUS03 KWNS 200723
SWODY3
SPC AC 200722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON D3/FRIDAY. A
WEAK LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS,
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EASTWARD PLACEMENT
OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ERODING MLCIN AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN OK. AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CLUSTERING AND
MORE MULTI-CELL MIXED MODE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THROUGH TIME.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
TENNESSEE AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. THOUGH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE.
..THORNTON.. 05/20/2026
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