490
ACUS11 KWNS 202129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202129
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...MUCH OF DELAWARE...EXTREME EASTERN
MARYLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...
VALID 202129Z - 202230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING TO SEVERE GUSTS REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE GUST EXISTS WITH
THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE LINE.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION HAS LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A
PROGRESSIVE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS, SEVERAL DAMAGING GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. PRECEDING THE
STORMS IS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED BY OVER 1500
J/KG MLCAPE DUE TO 8-9 C/KM 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OVERLAPPING 90+ F
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR, WHILE
MODERATE (E.G. 25 KTS PER 21Z MESOANALYSIS), IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY
NORMAL TO THE MCS LEADING LINE. AS SUCH, DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCS (FROM PHL TO AREAS
WEST OF NYC) GIVEN THE MOST FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR VECTOR.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 38787625 39717555 40697500 41227442 41497347 41457258
41317221 41147212 40827296 40587353 39877404 39347443
38857504 38687542 38617575 38787625
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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