557
ACUS11 KWNS 212103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212102
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...
VALID 212102Z - 212230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH A RISK FOR HAIL,
DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW238, CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUPERCELLULAR AND LINEAR STRUCTURES NOW
APPARENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK GIVEN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, CLUSTERING AND THE LINEAR
SEGMENTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS EVENING. A
BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN
THIS, THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF WW238.
..LYONS.. 05/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38540306 38140169 37510109 36890106 36360110 35860144
35670214 35610277 35630353 35810421 36440431 37800394
38540306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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