276
ACUS11 KWNS 212246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212246
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-220045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...
VALID 212246Z - 220045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MAY ORGANIZE FURTHER
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS, IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL, THROUGH 7-8 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN AIDED BY FOCUSED LIFT DRIVEN BY
NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. THE EVOLVING CLUSTER NOW
APPEARS TO BE PROCESSING INFLOW OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE PEAK
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY SHEAR, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 23-01Z.
DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT, SO
EASTWARD PROPAGATION MAY BE MODEST, AT LEAST UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF
A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL SUPPORTS POSSIBLE ACCELERATION THIS
EVENING.
..KERR.. 05/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38120234 38460169 38110099 37070141 36200213 36120299
36750250 37540226 38120234
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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