767
ACUS11 KWNS 212310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212310
TXZ000-NMZ000-220045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212310Z - 220045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) ON THE COOL SIDE OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATER. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (GENERALLY 7-8 C/KM AS
SAMPLED BY THE 18Z AMA OBSERVED SOUNDING) AND GREATER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (25-35 KTS) WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THESE
ONGOING STORMS. RECENT MRMS AND OTHER MESH ESTIMATES SUPPORT THIS,
WITH VALUES HAVING RANGED FROM 1-2" WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
BEFORE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY GRADUALLY WANES AMID INCREASING
INHIBITION AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
FARTHER WEST, AN ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ON THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CELL AS IT DEVELOPS
EASTWARD AMID A DRIER, MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL,
WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 05/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32940305 32850395 32940489 33260506 33590490 34120414
34630381 35330341 35800289 35880253 35700228 34480214
33650237 33180258 32940305
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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