007
ACUS11 KWNS 220143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220143
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLE VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...
VALID 220143Z - 220315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT WEAKENING TRENDS ALREADY APPEAR UNDERWAY TO
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND ALLOW FOR
THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT WATCH BY 10 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED MESO-BETA SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE
EVOLVED AND REMAIN EVIDENT WITH THE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH HAS GENERATED AT LEAST A
NARROW COLD POOL WITH 3-4 MB 2-HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SAMPLED
AT DALHART IN THE 01Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, FORWARD MOTION
HAS REMAINED RATHER MODEST, AND CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES APPEAR TO BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING,
COUPLED WITH CONTINUED WARMING IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS, WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE EVENING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 05/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36040262 36540199 37330165 38060162 38360032 37459989
35990072 35370195 36040262
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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