908
ACUS01 KWNS 220601
SWODY1
SPC AC 220559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS, WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTHWEST TEXAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30
KNOTS WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME DOMINANT. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVES INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
..MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM EASTERN
KANSAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR
THE MOIST AXIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 500
TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR OMAHA SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REACH 35 KNOTS AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
..CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH MLCAPE PEAKING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. LOCALLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI,
EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST AIRMASS.
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION, HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT CURVED, WHICH SHOULD
ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 05/22/2026
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