126
ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN IOWA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
..SYNOPSIS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON D3/SUNDAY, WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS.
..EASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WESTERN IOWA
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
D3/SUNDAY. SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) SUGGEST
THAT A PLUME OF MID 50 TO 60S DEW POINTS MAY ADVECT UP INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA NEAR A NORTHWARD MOVING PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AND OVERLAP
AROUND 40-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUPERCELLS PROFILES, WITH STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, TRENDS IN 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ADDING IN LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..SOUTHEAST
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE
GENERALLY WEAK, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR WATER LADEN DOWN BURSTS AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND.
..THORNTON.. 05/22/2026
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