491
ACUS48 KWNS 220903
SWOD48
SPC AC 220901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW D4/MONDAY. HEIGHT RISES BEGIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM
THE WEST. SLOW MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ORGANIZED
STORM POTENTIAL LOW.
A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
D5/TUESDAY INTO D6/WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD, STRONGER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD AMID STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD
AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND IN PROGRESSION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH. SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY ACROSS SOME PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT CORRIDORS REMAINS LOW.
BY D7/THURSDAY-D8/FRIDAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WESTERN LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF AND SLOWLY WOBBLES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
CONTINUED HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN US AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD AS FLOW ENHANCES IN THE TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC IN THE D7-D8
PERIOD.
..THORNTON.. 05/22/2026
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