997
ACUS11 KWNS 221007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221006
MSZ000-221200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221006Z - 221200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY, CONVECTION IS EVOLVING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS IN
CENTRAL MS -- WHERE A MOIST AIR MASS (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) IS IN
PLACE. THE JAN VWP IS SAMPLING A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET (AROUND 40 KT AT 1 KM AGL) AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH (AROUND 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH). DESPITE WEAK
BUOYANCY, THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED STREAMWISE
VORTICITY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TRANSIENT, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A BRIEF TORNADO WAS
REPORTED AT 938 UTC SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON, MS, AND AN ADDITIONAL
BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE CORE OF THE 30-40-KT LLJ AS IT TRANSLATES NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MS.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 05/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32149064 32599053 33638980 33868940 33918887 33738843
33448829 32968837 32178894 31748960 31789013 32149064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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