544
ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY FROM THE RATON MESA VICINITY INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWARD NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PERSIST IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EVEN SO, MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL PROMOTE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCUR WITHIN THE RATON
MESA AND EVOLVES EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD. STORMS WOULD BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. SHEAR DOES WEAKEN
TO THE EAST SO SOME CLUSTERING IS POSSIBLE AS OUTFLOW INTERACT.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY, THOUGH MORE UNCERTAIN, IS THAT CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER SHEAR
QUICKLY.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A MODEST SURFACE LOW, THOUGH
SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME, WILL PULL UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO
PARTS OF THE REGION. MORNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST FILTERED SURFACE HEATING. THE ENHANCED 850 MB
WINDS, PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT, AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(AROUND 30 KT) COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
THOUGH CONDITIONAL, A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.
..GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA. LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F WILL SUPPORT 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT
IN SOUTH CAROLINA. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT A FEW WATER-LOADED
DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
..HILL COUNTRY/SOUTH TEXAS/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL APPROACH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A VERY MOIST (70+
DEWPOINTS) AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY AND PERHAPS
ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WINDS.
..WENDT.. 05/22/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page