103
ACUS11 KWNS 221748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221748
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AL...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221748Z - 222015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME TORNADO AND LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF AL,
OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUES TO BE NOTED WITHIN EMBEDDED
CELLS, WITH AN APPARENT RECENT TORNADO SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM. SOME
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED FROM THE KHTX VWP,
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT) CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODEST BUOYANCY AND WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER UPDRAFT INTENSITY, BUT
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A BRIEF-TORNADO THREAT ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL.
FARTHER NORTH, FILTERED HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO
SOUTHEAST KY, THOUGH MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SOME THREAT
FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES MAY EXPAND INTO A LARGER
PORTION OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY. LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE
POTENTIALLY LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE THREAT. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A MORE GENERAL UPTICK IN STORM
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/HART.. 05/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32898796 33118836 34538876 35368905 35828875 36428804
36638764 37458619 37648499 37548370 37138376 36468441
35548515 34688565 33308627 32878647 32898796
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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