613
ACUS11 KWNS 221810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221809
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-222045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH GA INTO UPSTATE SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221809Z - 222045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS IN PLACE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY THERMAL
GRADIENT, BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN A BROADER
CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM PARTS OF NORTH GA INTO UPSTATE SC. CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGER LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS, BUT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND LOCALLY
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE ZONE OF BACKED SURFACE WINDS
MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION, AND A MARGINAL
SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND
WILL TEMPER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT, BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
..DEAN/HART.. 05/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35008478 35138282 34958212 34928120 34748104 34448115
34328131 34088178 33968220 33998349 34088420 34828471
35008478
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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