347
ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ILL BECOME MORE QUASI-ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. FLOW FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A RELATIVELY
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/THETA-E GRADIENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG AS THE MODEST TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S F MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE
STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPHS, AND
30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BE WELL MIXED SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..WENDT.. 05/22/2026
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