049
ACUS11 KWNS 222347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222347
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-230115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...
VALID 222347Z - 230115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
LANDSPOUTS CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240, WITH A
MORE ISOLATED THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS OF 2330 UTC, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
LANDSPOUTS, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL (RANGING FROM 1-2.5")
NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. DISORGANIZED OUTFLOWS ARE ALSO NOTED
VIA REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN A WEAK TO MODESTLY-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS). EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY CONGEAL ALONG
THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR AN EASTERLY MOTION FOR ANY SUCH CLUSTERS, BUT SOME DEVIATION
IS POSSIBLE WHERE ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR. LARGE HAIL
ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE, ROBUST CELLS THAT CAN
BE MAINTAINED. ENHANCED SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR LANDSPOUTS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE CLUSTER NOTED ALONG
AND WEST OF I-27 WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POCKET OF
LOCALLY GREATER LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY, THOUGH THE INCREASING TENDENCY
FOR OUTFLOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.
..CHALMERS.. 05/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32840154 33680196 34150255 34290360 34550384 34990393
35240375 35330330 35510199 35460105 35000011 34349960
33809939 33279937 32869959 32540011 32340091 32470122
32840154
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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