548
ACUS01 KWNS 230528
SWODY1
SPC AC 230527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...FROM GEORGIA
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A FEW
STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PARTS OF OHIO.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD MOIST SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S F. IN
RESPONSE, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
NEAR THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE, WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, VERY MOIST AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2500
TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE, MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
FROM GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
THE DAY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..OHIO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO, WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL OHIO AT 21Z HAVE 0-6 KM
SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150
M2/S2. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 05/23/2026
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