701
ACUS11 KWNS 230701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230700
TXZ000-230900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 230700Z - 230900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUST (55-65 MPH) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH AN EVOLVING BAND OF STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED ABOUT 50
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TX, WITH RECENT ECHO TOPS APPROACHING
45-50 KFT AGL. THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
FULLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE (MIDDLE/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS) AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS SAMPLED BY THE CRP 00Z SOUNDING). THIS,
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S F YIELDED A
CORRIDOR OF 3000 J/KG MLCAPE TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THIS BUOYANCY
AND AROUND 30 KT OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE COAST, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUST (55-65 MPH).
HOWEVER, WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AND THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 05/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28309772 28589807 29049754 29549742 29679713 29679659
29499611 29079594 28529616 28169658 28099697 28309772
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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