004
ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE MID MS VALLEY AND A LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF
THIS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP THE
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BROAD MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ONE OR MORE WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY AID IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MODEST, BUT VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, IF SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT CAN BE SUSTAINED. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WAS CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STORM COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK, WITH
A CONDITIONAL AREA HIGHLIGHTING VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL, SHOULD
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.
..SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. A BELT OF 20-30 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX WILL
PROVIDE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, BUT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE
ORGANIZED-SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED AND NEBULOUS
TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. IF A ROBUST MCV EMERGES FROM
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST, THEN SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.
..LA GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM D1/SATURDAY INTO
D2/SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LA GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY, AS
THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER TX INTERACTS WITH RICH
MOISTURE. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZED-SEVERE THREAT. ANY MORE ORGANIZED POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTINGENT ON MCV DEVELOPMENT, BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..LOWER OH VALLEY/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUOYANCY
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DEAN.. 05/23/2026
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