945
ACUS03 KWNS 231927
SWODY3
SPC AC 231926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW FOR
MONDAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS ON
MONDAY. A VERY SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES,
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION.
MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI AND UPPER MI, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
IS LOW, WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND GENERALLY MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAK INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT
STRONG HEATING AND PRESENCE OF A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
..SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON MONDAY FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX, IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM THE
RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FASTER TROUGH EJECTION AND/OR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, TO THE EAST OF THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER EAST TX. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF D1/D2
CONVECTION AND ANY MCV DEVELOPMENT, A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
COULD EVOLVE OVER SOME PART OF THIS REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 05/23/2026
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