658
FNUS22 KWNS 240700
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON D2/MONDAY AS A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW.
..GREAT BASIN
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-25 MPH, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
10-15% ALSO EXPECTED. RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE
BECOMING MORE RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS,
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
OVERLAPPING REDUCED RH OF 15-25% WILL ALSO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
..SOUTHWEST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PROFILES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM
0.4-0.7" (LOCALLY UP TO 1") AND MORE MARGINAL LCLS RANGING FROM 2-3+
KM AGL WILL LIKELY FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THAT FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN QUITE DRY (ERCS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE), ISOLATED LIGHTNING IGNITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THUS, THE
10% DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
..CHALMERS.. 05/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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