961
ACUS03 KWNS 240756
SWODY3
SPC AC 240755
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THIS REGION,
POSSIBLE HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON D3/TUESDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO
MEXICO, WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
..WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON/EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL AID IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS YIELDING AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY FROM JUST EAST OF BIG BEND AND NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. IN ADDITION, A PLUME OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.
INITIALLY, HODOGRAPHS WILL BE GENERALLY STRAIGHT BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY THE EVENING MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..MONTANA
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.
..THORNTON.. 05/24/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page