888
ACUS03 KWNS 241923
SWODY3
SPC AC 241922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS THIS
REGION, LARGE HAIL, SEVERE GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A BROAD
NEGATIVE-TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL IMPINGE UPON RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM ON
TUESDAY. WEAK CAPPING AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS. GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH COULD ALSO SUPPORT
SOME TORNADO THREAT FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO A LARGER PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DECREASING SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
STABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING
TREND. THE MARGINAL RISK WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO LATE EVENING.
..CENTRAL/WESTERN MT AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN ID
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY/EVENING FROM
PARTS OF NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST AT BEST, BUT INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..DEAN.. 05/24/2026
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