132
ACUS11 KWNS 241939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241939
TXZ000-242245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241939Z - 242245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A SPORADIC RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2035 UTC, REGIONAL VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TX. THESE INITIAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFUSE
REMNANT BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE HAS HELPED TO ERODE
AMBIENT INHIBITION FASTER. STRONG HEATING AMID A SEASONABLY MOIST
SURFACE AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS 65-70 F) SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BROADLY UNSTABLE (~2000 J/KG MLCAPE)
ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY, BOTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN CENTRAL TX, AND AHEAD OF A
REMNANT MCV OVER WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE, VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
(GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS). THIS WILL FAVOR A PULSE MULTICELL MODE
WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CLUSTERING IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONGER GUSTS
WITH DOWNBURSTS. THUS, WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT, A WW
IS LIKELY NOT NEEDED.
..LYONS/GUYER.. 05/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31140013 31450006 32669942 33259930 33939827 33319673
32719599 31929590 31219656 30649714 30459762 30219804
30069867 30059917 30189983 31140013
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page