620
ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW.
..DISCUSSION
THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA. OVERALL, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LARGELY BE WEST OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TYPICALLY EXHIBITS A MOIST-BIAS
DOES SUGGEST THAT HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES NUDGE INTO NORTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO. SHOULD MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS
SCENARIO INCREASE, LOW PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
UPCOMING OUTLOOK UPDATES.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOW.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW FROM A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 35-40
KTS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH SKINNY AND ELONGATED CAPE PROFILES AND ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH A
FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
..THORNTON.. 05/25/2026
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