963
FNUS22 KWNS 250727
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON D2/TUESDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LEE
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH DRY FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO INCREASES WITH
WESTWARD EXTENT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..GREAT BASIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT, WITH
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SUPPORTING RH REDUCTIONS TO
15-20% (LOCALLY LOWER). ACCELERATING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN EXPOSED,
ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS). WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
..CHALMERS.. 05/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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