259
FNUS22 KWNS 251936
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..GREAT BASIN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS OF 15-20% ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT, INTO NORTHWEST AZ TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 15% WILL
PROMOTE AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AMID
CURED/DRYING FINE FUELS, PRIMARILY IN LOWER ELEVATION/MID-SLOPE
AREAS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
PRONOUNCED LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT, SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY, WHILE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT
RH REDUCTIONS OF 15-20% DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN MT. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEASTERN MT AND FAR WESTERN ND WHERE DELAYED GREEN UP AND
EXISTING DRY FUELS ALIGN WITH THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION, ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MT INTO ND ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/25/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0226 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON D2/TUESDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LEE
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH DRY FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO INCREASES WITH
WESTWARD EXTENT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..GREAT BASIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT, WITH
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SUPPORTING RH REDUCTIONS TO
15-20% (LOCALLY LOWER). ACCELERATING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN EXPOSED,
ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS). WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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